Govt raises next three years’ growth targets (Economic goals this year seen unchanged)
Angelo S. Samonte
Manila Times
PHILIPPINE economic managers raised their growth forecast for the next three years, citing improvements in agriculture, tourism and foreign trade. But the dream-target of a 10-percent expansion would have to wait until 2010.
In a recent meeting the Development and Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC), however, retained this year’s economic growth forecast of between 6.1 percent and 6.7 percent.
For next year the interagency body that sets the country’s macroeconomic targets said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) would grow between 6.1 percent and 6.8 percent, up from an earlier range of 5.8 percent to 6.6 percent.
For 2009 the GDP is seen expanding between 6.2 percent and 6.8 percent. Growth forecast for 2010 remains at 6.4 percent to 7.3 percent.
The DBCC said that these new estimates were based on the projected acceleration in agricultural production, increase in tourist arrivals brought about by the open-skies policy and more investments.
The peso will strengthen further, the DBCC said, due to strong inflows of overseas Filipino worker remittances, foreign direct investments, exports and the liberalization of the central bank’s policy on foreign-exchange inflows.
The DBCC also revised the government’s export figures due to a strong peso. But growth this year remains at 11 percent and would rise to 12 percent next year.
The interagency body, however, cut 2009 and 2010 exports growth to 12 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
Import growth figures likewise were reduced to 12 percent this year and next, and to 14 percent for 2010.
Fuel prices are also expected to increase in the coming years, as capacity constraints continue despite new refineries. Also contributing to costlier fuel are the negligible impact of renewable biofuels, a wider band of price volatility and, and geopolitical tensions in Iraq and Nigeria.
Petroleum price will range from $61 to $64 a barrel this year, and $62 to $70 next year.
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