American Chamber foresees no recession

Christian V. Esguerra
Philippine Daily Inquirer

An official of the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, or AmCham, on Monday downplayed the possibility of an economic recession in the country next year as a result of the global financial crisis.

“I don’t expect it to happen in the Philippines next year,” John Forbes, chairman of the AmCham legislative committee, told reporters after the signing in Malacañang of an executive order allowing foreigners who employ at least 10 Filipinos to stay indefinitely in the Philippines.

Forbes noted that a recession would happen only following two successive quarters of “negative economic growth,” something the Philippines has not experienced since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

“The Philippines has had a long run,” he said.

Forbes cited the basic support the Philippine economy gets from the foreign exchange remitted by overseas Filipino workers, which usually increase during the Christmas season.

A survey by the Makati Business Club, which groups heads of top corporations, earlier showed that most businessmen expect a recession once the global financial turmoil hits the country next year.

But Malacañang’s economic officials were quick to insist that they were anticipating only a “slowdown,” not a recession.

“What you mean by economic slowdown is when your neighbor loses his job. By recession, it’s you who loses your job,” Finance Secretary Margarito Teves quipped at a Senate finance committee hearing.

Forbes said even a recession would lead only to a “slowdown” in expansion of businesses, downplaying the possibility of foreign investors abandoning the Philippines.

“You don’t pull out usually. That’s quite rare,” he said.

Like many other Asian countries, the Philippines is considered in relatively good standing to confront the financial crisis, he said.

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has attributed this to the reforms instituted by the government after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and “tough” decisions such as the implementation of the expanded value-added tax. Edited by INQUIRER.net